B.C.'s population has dropped: Here's why it's lower and what it means
Between July and October of this year, over 26,000 non-permanent residents left B.C. as part of a trend that dropped Canada’s overall population by 0.2 per cent.
Alec Lazenby, Vancouver Suna day ago
For the first time in recorded history, B.C.’s population has dropped. MARK VAN MANEN, PNGListen to this article
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For the first time in recorded history, B.C. has finished the year with fewer people than it started with.
Experts say that while the population drop could help drive down rents in some parts of the province, it is unlikely to help the struggling health-care system — and it could exacerbate shortages of workers in certain sectors.
“We’re definitely seeing the impacts on the post-secondary system in the country because a lot of institutions are struggling financially,” said Lisa Brunner, a research associate at the University of B.C.’s centre for migration studies.
“We’re also starting to see it in some companies that are saying that they’re having difficulty hiring workers.”
Between July and October of this year, more than 26,000 non-permanent residents left B.C. as part of a trend that dropped Canada’s overall population by 0.2 per cent.
That is the second-highest drop in population in the country over that period, behind only Ontario. Only Alberta and Nunavut saw their population increase.
How does the population drop compare to past years?
Premier David Eby and his government have been pointing to B.C.’s population growth as part of the reason for the increasing demand for housing, health care and other public services.
In September, he drew a correlation between Canada’s temporary foreign worker program and high youth unemployment, which saw 18,500 young people stop their search for a job in June.
“We can’t have an immigration system that fills up our homeless shelters and our food banks. We can’t have an immigration system that outpaces our ability to build schools and housing. And we can’t have an immigration program that results in high youth unemployment,” said Eby, drawing rebuke from some members of his party.
B.C. gained large numbers of people in 2022, 2023 and 2024, and its population soared from 5.3 million to just under 5.7 million.
Losses in the first quarter of this year were due to a decline in natural population growth and interprovincial migration. But decreases in the past two quarters, making up the vast majority of the decrease, have been due to out-migration.
Jobs Minister Ravi Kahlon said in a statement that the reduction gives the province “a moment to breathe,” but said he recognizes that immigration will be needed to help fill gaps in the labour force.
Brunner said the caps on international students and federal changes to work permits and permanent residency have made it harder for work permit and study permit holders to stay in Canada permanently.
She criticized the federal government for encouraging people to come to Canada during and immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 with the promise of permanent residency, only to take that away.
“Those temporary residents became a political liability, and so the government is choosing to send home many members of our communities that our society has really depended on during the pandemic,” Brunner said.
Kevin Root, chairperson of the Alliance of B.C. Students, said many international students have told him they “feel like the rug has been pulled out from under them.”
Will it address issues surrounding housing and health care?
Rentals.ca has logged a 6.8 per cent drop in average rents across the province, while the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported this month that vacancy rates have risen in both Vancouver and Victoria.
Andy Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University, said most non-permanent residents are renters, meaning that a drop in their numbers could be good news for those looking for more affordable housing.
But, he said, most non-permanent residents are of working age, meaning their exit is unlikely to make much of a difference to the health-care crisis.
“Certainly they may need some health care, but they’re not necessarily in the kind of more expensive types of care,” Yan said.
Brunner said many high-income countries are struggling with an aging population, and Canada is no exception.
She said that the country will have to make some difficult decisions if it no longer plans to rely as much on immigration to solve its demographic challenges, though she recognizes that Ottawa isn’t fully moving away from welcoming new residents.
“It’s not just about demographics, it’s about the social services that we provide for our community members,” Brunner said.
“Canada will still need to rely on immigration.”
What does it mean for employers?
Since the pandemic, many sectors have been having trouble attracting the kinds of workers they need, and business leaders fear the changes will affect their ability to hire skilled employees.
Ryan Mitton, director of legislative affairs for B.C. for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said a recent poll conducted by his organization found 47 per cent of small businesses are struggling to find employees.
“We are asking the federal government and the provincial government to pursue permanent paths to citizenship for current economic immigrants,” Mitton said.
“Temporary foreign workers who have already come into Canada, who have received the skills training, who have been here for several years, they’re looking for a permanent path to citizenship, and we need to enable that, because businesses have already spent time investing and training these workers.”
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