Max Notes

 

Max Notes

Crypto Winter Consider becoming a UNFTR member. Jim Cramer is a moron, so take this with a grain of salt. On CNBC he blurted out that he “heard at 60 they’re going to fill the Bitcoin reserve, so you better cover.” The man who said three years ago that you’d have to be “an idiot” to own crypto before buying a ton of crypto and reporting on it ever since actually might have moved the market. After he spread this rumor Bitcoin rebounded 15% and hit $70,000.   There’s no evidence that we actively manage a “Bitcoin Reserve,” though the Treasury holds Bitcoin. There’s no evidence that there’s a stated or implied strike price that the administration will defend. Because there is literally zero strategic importance to Bitcoin as it relates to the monetary system. Like I said, Cramer is a moron. That being said, the price did rebound.   This opens up a can of worms.   Before we get there, however, we should talk about this idea of a “crypto winter.” Even at 70k, the vibe seems to be that this is the beginning of the end of Bitcoin and that the crypto jig is up. Paul Krugman made the rounds to declare the whole thing kaput. A relentless number of videos and articles claimed that Bitcoin could hit zero. People were dancing on Michael Saylor’s grave. Don’t get me wrong, there are still plenty of people claiming that it’s merely a Monty Python-esque flesh wound and even some that claim Bitcoin is on its way to $1million.   It’s this delta that tells you everything you need to know about what Bitcoin is. It’s a speculative investment asset. I feel like we need to get this out of the way if we’re to have a productive conversation about the future of crypto and why the sentiment is trending more toward a permanently bearish outlook. Moreover, it helps explain the difference between the Trump family’s interest in crypto and the administration’s stance.   I think there were two huge moments for crypto in 2025 that are weighing on the sector as a whole. The first was the passage of the Genius Act in the summer. The second was the formal launch of the BRICS “Unit.” Here’s how I see it.   The whole conceit of Bitcoin (as a proxy for all of crypto) is that it was supposed to signify the liberation of money. Anonymized and decentralized. It was the ultimate libertarian monetary fantasy designed to break the stranglehold of the globalists over the monetary order. Since its inception in 2008 and its introduction as a form of currency in 2009, it has maintained a certain mystique; partly because of the unknown identity of its inventor and partly because it truly seemed to vex financial institutions. Is it money? Is it a commodity? Is it even real?   In its early days, Bitcoin maintained a level of intrigue while it slowly gained acceptance as something that perhaps checked every box. El Salvador made it an official currency. Hedge funds began to stockpile it. ETFs began to index it. Eventually, Bitcoin went mainstream and even the stodgiest financial journals opened up space to cover its movements. And given its volatility, there was a lot to cover.   The reason I say the Genius Act was an inflection point, and perhaps a negative one, is because it appeared to represent the mainstreaming of crypto. The world’s largest economy legitimized cryptocurrency by developing a framework for stablecoins, a digital currency backed by the U.S. Dollar. This was on the heels of President Trump declaring that the United States would be the crypto capital of the world and that we would even commit to building a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Crypto had gone mainstream.   While the Genius Act didn’t specifically regulate Bitcoin, it acknowledged the role of crypto in managing the affairs of the U.S. economy. Surely as the OG asset in the crypto world, Bitcoin would enjoy the benefits of such legitimacy. And so it soared. From the time of Trump’s re-election to the end of October, 2025, Bitcoin nearly doubled in price. Institutional money poured into the sector like never before.   Behind the scenes some of the original holders started making big moves around the passage of the Genius Act and continuing through early 2026. Long dormant wallets suddenly tracked new activity and consolidated holdings or began cashing out. It was a curious time considering the amplified positions of institutional investors. My take on this is that it was a response to exactly this. The Genius Act marked the official end of the wildcat libertarian era. The death of the crypto ideology.   Newer investors, including institutional ones, didn’t seem to care as they continued to pile money into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. After all, they were making a market and paying good lobbying money for it. The only fracture among the big players was whether the crypto companies themselves would be able to act like commercial banks by offering rewards (i.e. interest) to account holders. This was a bridge too far for the commercial banking giants, which is why the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate. (More to come on this Act and the Anti-CBDC Act.)   With the early adopters sensing the end of the decentralization and anonymous era, the ideological crew gave way to the speculators. The crypto bros who probably never bothered to even read the Bitcoin white paper that started everything. If institutional money was revving their engines, global central bank money was going to send them off to the races. So the upshot of the Genius Act was that it separated the ideological libertarian bros from the popped-collar-under-the-vest bros.   And then, on October 31, 2025 the BRICS alliance announced that the BRICS Unit was officially operational under a pilot program. The Unit is a stablecoin backed 40% by gold and 60% by a basket of BRICS nation currencies.   Wait. No Bitcoin?   Nope. And then this happened.

This is Bitcoin. The steepest decline over any comparable period. Absolute freefall.    Gold on the other hand…

Is experiencing the steepest incline in its history over the same period of time.    We are headed for a crypto future but Bitcoin ain’t part of it. The global monetary order future is in stablecoins backed by physical commodities, not some anonymously designed libertarian fantasy coin.    When it comes to money, always bet on the bankers.